Probabilistic risk assessment of earth dams with spatially variable soil properties using random adaptive finite element limit analysis

verfasst von

Kang Liao, Yiping Wu, Fasheng Miao, Yutao Pan, Michael Beer

Abstract

Risk assessment of earth dams is concerned not only with the probability of failure but also with the corresponding consequence, which can be more difficult to quantify when the spatial variability of soil properties is involved. This study presents a risk assessment for an earth dam in spatially variable soils using the random adaptive finite element limit analysis. The random field theory, adaptive finite element limit analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation are employed to implement the entire process. Among these methods, the random field theory is first introduced to describe the soil spatial variability. Then the adaptive finite element limit analysis is adopted to obtain the bound solution and consequence. Finally, the failure probability and risk assessment are counted via the Monte Carlo simulation. In contrary to the deterministic analysis that only a factor of safety is given, the stochastic analysis considering the spatial variability can provide statistical characteristics of the stability and assess the risk of the earth dam failure comprehensively, which can be further used for guiding decision-making and mitigation. Besides, the effects of the correlation structure of strength parameters on the stochastic response and risk assessment of the earth dam are investigated through parametric analysis.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Risiko und Zuverlässigkeit

Externe Organisation(en)

China University of Geosciences (CUG)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Typ

Artikel

Journal

Engineering with computers

Band

39

Seiten

3313-3326

Anzahl der Seiten

14

ISSN

0177-0667

Publikationsdatum

10.2023

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Software, Modellierung und Simulation, Allgemeiner Maschinenbau, Angewandte Informatik

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00366-022-01752-0 (Zugang: Geschlossen)