Enhanced Bayesian Network framework with imprecise probabilities for modelling degradation in concrete structures of radioactive waste disposals accounting for uncertainties due to climate change
Abstract
Radioactive waste disposals are engineered with concrete structures that must resist for very long times. Concrete structures are subject to chemical corrosion, which depends on the environment and is, thus, affected by climate change in the long term. We develop an enhanced Bayesian Network with imprecise probabilities to model the corrosion process while accounting for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. The modelling framework is applied to carbonation and chloride corrosion processes of concrete structures in radioactive waste disposals subject to climate change, considering the uncertainties associated with environmental parameters such as temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and relative humidity. The results demonstrate the potential of the enhanced Bayesian Network modelling framework proposed.
Details
- Organisationseinheit(en)
-
Institut für Risiko und Zuverlässigkeit
- Externe Organisation(en)
-
Politecnico di Milano
École des mines de Paris
The University of Liverpool
Tongji University
- Typ
- Artikel
- Journal
- Structural safety
- Band
- 121
- ISSN
- 0167-4730
- Publikationsdatum
- 07.2026
- Publikationsstatus
- Veröffentlicht
- Peer-reviewed
- Ja
- ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Tief- und Ingenieurbau, Bauwesen, Sicherheit, Risiko, Zuverlässigkeit und Qualität
- Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung
- SDG 13 - Klimaschutzmaßnahmen
- Elektronische Version(en)
-
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2026.102718 (Zugang:
Offen
)
