Stochastic Model Updating with Uncertainty Quantification

An Overview and Tutorial

verfasst von

Sifeng Bi, Michael Beer, Scott Cogan, John Mottershead

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of the theoretic framework of stochastic model updating, including critical aspects of model parameterisation, sensitivity analysis, surrogate modelling, test-analysis correlation, parameter calibration, etc. Special attention is paid to uncertainty analysis, which extends model updating from the deterministic domain to the stochastic domain. This extension is significantly promoted by uncertainty quantification metrics, no longer describing the model parameters as unknown-but-fixed constants but random variables with uncertain distributions, i.e. imprecise probabilities. As a result, the stochastic model updating no longer aims at a single model prediction with maximum fidelity to a single experiment, but rather a reduced uncertainty space of the simulation enveloping the complete scatter of multiple experiment data. Quantification of such an imprecise probability requires a dedicated uncertainty propagation process to investigate how the uncertainty space of the input is propagated via the model to the uncertainty space of the output. The two key aspects, forward uncertainty propagation and inverse parameter calibration, along with key techniques such as P-box propagation, statistical distance-based metrics, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, and Bayesian updating, are elaborated in this tutorial. The overall technical framework is demonstrated by solving the NASA Multidisciplinary UQ Challenge 2014, with the purpose of encouraging the readers to reproduce the result following this tutorial. The second practical demonstration is performed on a newly designed benchmark testbed, where a series of lab-scale aeroplane models are manufactured with varying geometry sizes, following pre-defined probabilistic distributions, and tested in terms of their natural frequencies and model shapes. Such a measurement database contains naturally not only measurement errors but also, more importantly, controllable uncertainties from the pre-defined distributions of the structure geometry. Finally, open questions are discussed to fulfil the motivation of this tutorial in providing researchers, especially beginners, with further directions on stochastic model updating with uncertainty treatment perspectives.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Risiko und Zuverlässigkeit

Externe Organisation(en)

University of Strathclyde
The University of Liverpool
Tongji University
Institute FEMTO-ST

Typ

Artikel

Journal

Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing

Band

204

ISSN

0888-3270

Publikationsdatum

01.12.2023

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Steuerungs- und Systemtechnik, Signalverarbeitung, Tief- und Ingenieurbau, Luft- und Raumfahrttechnik, Maschinenbau, Angewandte Informatik

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ymssp.2023.110784 (Zugang: Offen)