Efficient System Reliability Analysis for Layered Soil Slopes with Multiple Failure Modes Using Sequential Compounding Method

authored by: Kang Liao, Yiping Wu, Fasheng Miao, Longfei Zhang, Michael Beer
Abstract: Evaluating the system reliability of layered soil slopes is a challenging issue because multiple failure modes may be included along the slip surfaces, which makes the overall failure probability greater than any individual slip surface. In this paper, an efficient system reliability analysis concerning the layered soil slopes is conducted based on the sequential compounding method (SCM) that has the ability to compound multiple failure events into an equivalent event sequentially. First, the first order reliability method (FORM) is employed to quantify initial reliability indices and correlation coefficients among these failure modes. Subsequently, the SCM is used to calculate the equivalent reliability indices and correlation coefficients until the multiple failure events are reduced to a compound event, and then the system reliability of the slope is obtained accordingly. The application of the approach to probabilistic evaluation of layered slopes is illustrated by two typical examples, and the correctness is verified by a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The results show that the SCM can deliver accurate system failure probability and greatly improve the computational efficiency compared with the MCS, which is an advantageous and promising strategy in evaluating the system reliability of layered soil slopes.
Organisation(s): Institute for Risk and Reliability
External Organisation(s): Southwest Jiaotong University
China University of Geosciences
Type: Article
Journal: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume: 9
ISSN: 2376-7642
Publication date: 06.2023
Publication status: Published
Peer reviewed: Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, Building and Construction, Civil and Structural Engineering
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1022 (Access: Closed)